State of the question

Individuals concerned with the management of hazardous activities are regularly confronted with different forms of uncertainty. This is true of workers on industrial sites, people who operate large infrastructures and networks, who work in research laboratories, for regulatory authorities, for agencies that provide expertise and guidance to government authorities, people who work for insurance companies, etc. It is also true of organizations such as local authorities, non governmental bodies and associations, trade union organizations, and in general, all organizations that may be concerned by the presence of hazardous activities.

Some of these uncertainties concern the nature of the dangers associated with production, transport, or research activities, in particular when new technologies or innovations are introduced. Other types of uncertainty are caused by changes in the organizational, financial and legal context to which hazardous activities must adapt (because of evolution in legislation, or in companies’ organization and strategies). Another category of uncertainties arise given changes in the human, social, political and natural context of hazardous activities, in particular structural modifications (to urbanization, for example) and the new role played by stakeholders.

These uncertainties are being reduced in various ways. The evolution from the notion of danger to that of risk (identification of the causes of incidents and accidents; safety margins; defence in depth; probabilistic safety analyses; consequence assessments, etc.) has, in many areas, allowed a reduction of the scope of uncertainties in the management of technological risks. Many tools and processes have been developed in this aim, and different approaches are still being debated (deterministic vs. probabilistic risk assessment …).

Nonetheless, recent research suggests that, for various reasons, this reduction of the scope of uncertainty is becoming an issue, and needs to be addressed in a more direct manner. At the heart of the hazardous activities listed previously, new forms of uncertainty are being introduced by the increased level of concern for human and organizational factors of safety and the need to consider the complexity of socio-technical systems in a global manner. The adequacy of risk management mechanisms (safety margins, barriers) is sometimes questioned given these new uncertainties. The socio-economic, political and environmental context in which these activities operate is becoming increasingly uncertain.

People concerned in different ways by hazardous activities (both people who run or manage dangerous activities, and those who oversee and regulate them, as well as stakeholders who may be concerned by the effects of a hypothetical loss of control) operate in this uncertain environment. The way in which uncertainties are approached, handled, managed, has become a central issue, in particular in numerous scientific debates that have overflowed to the general public, such as those concerning the precautionary principle.

Scope of the Call for Proposals

This call for proposals aims to fund research related to uncertainty that is based on the analysis of day-to-day decision-making faced with uncertainty (whether “ordinary” everyday decisions or more exceptional situations with higher stakes). The call aims to complement the significant body of research that has already been developed on the definition and characterization of uncertainty, on the development of tools to model and reduce the scope of uncertainty, and on decision-support tools in the face of risk and uncertainty.

The objective is to improve understanding of how, in practice, people who are in different ways concerned with hazardous activities internalize and understand uncertainties, and – especially – how they deal with them. Indeed, experience shows that people are constantly confronted with different forms of uncertainty, and nevertheless undertake actions and continue their work. There is a lack of knowledge concerning these concrete practices, which would provide essential information on the manner in which people resolve, or cope with, different forms of uncertainty.

By observing different situations (analyses, problem solving, decision-making, holding of a position), the aim is to determine how people manage to operate despite these uncertainties; how they create the conditions that make action possible despite an uncertain environment. These observations could concern people who have access to tools designed to model and manage uncertainty, as well as people without such tools. The focus should be on the processes that – through the use of various tools, procedures, specific forms of knowledge or experience – allow issues affected by uncertainty to be made intelligible and “decidable” (transformed into notions that can be used in the decision-making process). Various categories of people may be considered: industrialists, operators and managers working in hazardous installations, insurers, politicians (in particular in local government officials), administrative workers, activists in non-governmental organizations, trade union representatives, etc.

Projects submitted in response to this call should be based on a well delimited topic or object, in order to allow detailed analysis. Examples of situations that could be studied by projects submitted concerning practices of decision-making in the presence of uncertainty are:

• The mechanisms that influence decisions related to technology (maintenance, improvement work, innovation, etc.);
• The design of safety-related mechanisms (possibly including revolutionary technology or organizational changes), their acceptance by the Authorities and by the market (certification process, attribution of safety labels…);
• The increasing use of modelling and computer simulation to improve operations in hazardous activities;
• Day-to-day choices and decisions made in the field, both by operators and by management;
• The process of developing a safety case or risk assessment (for an industrial plant, energy generation facility, transport system, large network, instrumentation and metrology…) and the examination of the dossier by the Authorities and the general public (the public sphere);
• Decisions related to the insurance of hazardous activities;
• Decisions related to investments impacting safety (inspections, maintenance, modifications of equipment, etc.);
• The production of reports and guidance (expertise for a government body, the private sector, for a public debate);
• The political decision-making process (at a local or national level) concerning the management of technological risks.

This list of examples is not exhaustive. These issues, and others, may be applied to any domain related to industrial safety.

Expected results

The FonCSI shall pay particular attention to the outcomes that can be expected of the research work. Research work funded by this call is expected to contribute to:

• The “extraction” and the analysis of the knowledge and the know-how deployed by people to handle uncertainty in their everyday activities;
• Feedback on decision-support tools and operational procedures that guide the decision-making process, in order to reduce the gap that may exist between these tools and the needs of the people using them.